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Corona Virus - True Estimated Cases India
Estimate: | Data |
True Estimated Cases | 4200 = (21*200) |
Why is this estimation important?
Crucially, these true cases weren’t known at the time. We can only figure them out looking backwards: The authorities don’t know that somebody just started having symptoms. They know when somebody goes to the doctor and gets diagnosed.
Consider this graph of spreading of corona in Hubei Province 👇
Source: Tomas Pueyo analysis over chart from the Journal of the American Medical Association, based on raw case data from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
What this means is that the orange bars show you what authorities knew, and the grey ones what was really happening.
Please read this article on Medium by @tomaspueyo for more details.
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Facts: | Data |
Reported Cases | 88 |
Yesterday Cases | 74 |
Growth Rate | 18.9% |
Double Time | 3.9 Days |
First Death | 11 March |
Number of Deaths | 2 |
Assumption: | Data |
Symptom onset to Death (1) | 17.3 Days |
Mortality Rate | 1% |
Calculation: | Data |
Cases Multiplied (till first death) | 21 |
Initial Cases (1% mortality) | 200 |
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