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Corona Virus - True Estimated Cases India
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Corona Virus - True Estimated Cases India
Last updated
Was this helpful?
Estimate:
Data
True Estimated Cases
4200 = (21*200)
Why is this estimation important?
Crucially, these true cases weren’t known at the time. We can only figure them out looking backwards: The authorities don’t know that somebody just started having symptoms. They know when somebody goes to the doctor and gets diagnosed.
Consider this graph of spreading of corona in Hubei Province 👇
Source: Tomas Pueyo analysis over chart from the Journal of the American Medical Association, based on raw case data from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
What this means is that the orange bars show you what authorities knew, and the grey ones what was really happening.
Please read this article on Medium by @tomaspueyo for more details.
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Facts:
Data
Reported Cases
88
Yesterday Cases
74
Growth Rate
18.9%
Double Time
3.9 Days
First Death
11 March
Number of Deaths
2
Assumption:
Data
Symptom onset to Death (1)
17.3 Days
Mortality Rate
1%
Calculation:
Data
Cases Multiplied (till first death)
21
Initial Cases (1% mortality)
200
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